TEL AVIV -- Israel welcomes today the presumptive democratic presidential candidate, Barack Obama, with a lot of curiosity but also with a certain degree of concern.
Based on Obama's earlier speeches, the entire political body in Israel is guessing whether he'll be as friendly to Israel as his predecessors have been; or whether his occupation of the White House would signal a major shift in American Middle Eastern policy, at Israel's expense.
Israel is the third leg in Obama's first overseas trip as a presidential candidate. His aim is to acquaint himself with diplomatic and security issues, that his Republican opponent, Senator John McCain, is said to be more experienced with than he is. Obama is accompanied by, among others, Ambassador Dennis Ross, the former Middle East negotiator under presidents George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton. Ross, a Jew and a devoted friend of Israel, is now one of Obama's top advisers and, should Obama win the election, he would certainly be appointed to one of the top positions in the new administration.
By having Ross on his team, Obama wants to signal to Israel and American Jews that they need not be concerned about his views on Israel and the Palestinians.
Obama's visit had somewhat eclipsed British Prime Minister Gordon Brown's visit to Israel, which ended Monday.
Like French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel who precdeded him, Brown addressed the Knesset on Monday and met in Jerusalem with all the Israeli leaders. His Knesset speech was extremely warm and reflected his life-long friendship to Israel.
Brown suggested drafting "an economic roadmap" for the future development of Israel and Palestine. He said that British corporations are very much interested in investing in joint Israeli-Palestinian ventures and also in participating in major housing projects in the West Bank. In the political part of his speech, Brown did not depart from the traditional British policy that calls for the establishment of a Palestinian state, living side by side with a secure Israel and with Jerusalem divided between them.
Obama's program includes meetings with all of Israel's top leaders.
After dining this evening with Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, Obama will go to the Western Wall, where he intends to place a note between its sacred walls, praying for his success in the coming election.
On Wednesday morning, Obama is scheduled to meet with Defence Minister Ehud Barak and the Likud opposition leader, Benjamin Netanyahu. Then, accompanied by Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, he will take a helicopter ride to visit Sderot and to fly along Israel's borders with Syria and Lebanon and over the West Bank. Livni is trying to repeat the success of a similar helicopter ride by President George W. Bush, accompanied by former prime minister Ariel Sharon, which is said to have influenced Bush tremendously in his approach to the Palestinian problem.
After the tour, Obama will travel to the West Bank and meet with Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas, where he is expected to hear Palestinian grievances about why there is still no solution for their plight. Obama has expressed several times in the past sympathy to Palestinian problems and he is known to favour a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
However, the focus in both Brown's and Obama's visits is, understandably, on Iran's nuclear ambitions. Israel is very concerned about what appears to be a softening in American positions. The talks in both Washington and Tehran and American participation in the last meeting in Geneva with the Iranian foreign minister, without insisting on Iran's suspension first of uranium enrichment, is seen in Israel as an "Iranian victory" and as a further strengthening of the radical camp in the Middle East. Brown assured Olmert that the United Kingdom will continue to press for stronger sanctions against Iran. In previous statements, Obama called for a dialogue with Iran. Thus, the new administration line could not be to his dissatisfaction. Olmert and Barak intend to show Obama the same intelligence that they have shared with Bush. They will also repeat what they have told Gordon Brown, that "Israel cannot live with a nuclear Iran but without implying a military strike against Iran's nuclear installations."
Obma's reaction will show whether Israel can be confident of an Obama administration or whether its initial fears are justified.
Samuel Segev is the Free Press Middle East correspondent. He is based in Tel Aviv.
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