At least two Manitoba ridings, and possibly three, are on the verge of changing hands in Tuesday's federal election, a Free Press Insiders panel survey suggests.
If voters in the two Winnipeg swing ridings –- Liberal-held St. Boniface and Conservative Winnipeg South –- decide to dump their incumbent MPs, only an upset in the sprawling, too-close-to-call northern riding of Churchill would change the existing lineup of eight Tories, three Liberals and three New Democrats.
An online survey of almost 3,000 members of the Free Press Insiders panel, conducted from Wednesday to noon Friday, found the Conservatives still leading overall with 39 per cent of decided voters. But that’s down five per cent in the last week, and four points off the party's 43-per-cent showing across Manitoba in the 2006 election.
Liberal support is now at 28 per cent overall, up three points from last week and two per cent above the party's 2006 vote share, the survey indicates. The NDP are at 25 per cent, up two points in the last week but about where they were in 2006.
Here's what’s happening on the campaign’s final weekend, with the Insiders survey sample size for each:
St. Boniface: Liberal MP Ray Simard has trailed Tory challenger Shelly Glover badly in Insider polls throughout the campaign, but the gap has narrowed somewhat. Simard's support has risen eight points while Glover has dropped by the same amount in the past week, but Glover is still ahead by a wide margin -- 49 to 34 per cent among decided Insider voters. The undecided rate in the riding is just four per cent. Sample: 299.
Winnipeg South: It's been a see-saw battle between Conservative incumbent Rod Bruinooge and Liberal John Loewen throughout the campaign, but Loewen now has a seven-point lead among decided Insider voters here.
Bruinooge has dropped five points to 35 per cent in the last week, while Loewen has actually declined slightly to 42 per cent. New Democrat Sean Robert has picked up eight points and is now running at 18 per cent of decided voters. Bruinooge won the riding in 2006 by just 111 votes over former Liberal cabinet minister Reg Alcock. Sample: 437
Winnipeg South Centre: Tory challenger Trevor Kennard has dropped a whopping nine points in the past week, as undecideds and 'soft' Tory voters flock back to Liberal incumbent Anita Neville. She now has 50 per cent of decided Insider voters –- up more than 10 points from her 2006 showing -- to 26 per cent for Kennard. Sample: 450.
Elmwood-Transcona: Conservative Thomas Steen has actually picked up a bit of support and NDP Jim Maloway has fallen back slightly in the past week, but it's still 48-38 for Maloway in the race to succeed longtime New Democrat MP Bill Blaikie. Sample: 233
Winnipeg Centre: Incumbent New Democrat Pat Martin is leading comfortably with 43 per cent of decided Insider voters. While both Martin and Liberal Dan Hurley have benefited from a Conservative drop, Green Party candidate Jessie Klassen appears to be running second with 21 per cent. Sample: 201
Winnipeg North: MP Judy Wasylycia-Leis retains a strong NDP lead with 55-per-cent support among Insiders. Her closest challenger, Conservative Ray Larkin, continues to fade and is now at 23 per cent. Sample: 155
Kildonan-St. Paul: Conservative MP Joy Smith has seen six points of her margin bleed off to all her opponents, but she's still ahead 49 to 31 per cent over New Democrat Ross Eadie among Insiders. This riding has the highest undecided rate at more than 12 per cent. Sample: 292
Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia: Tory incumbent Steven Fletcher is down four points and Liberal challenger Bob Friesen up three in the last week, but it’s still 46-28 for Fletcher in this safe Conservative seat, according to the survey. Sample: 344
Selkirk-Interlake: Both Liberal Kevin Walsh and New Democrat Patricia Cordner have picked up a couple of points as Green support ebbs, but Tory incumbent James Bezan seems quite safe with 53 per cent of the vote. Sample: 149
Rural ridings: Although sample sizes in other rural Manitoba ridings are insufficient to predict winners, there's no sign through five Insider campaign surveys of any real challenge to Treasury Board President and Manitoba cabinet minister Vic Toews (Provencher), Tory MPs Inky Mark (Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette) and Merv Tweed (Brandon-Souris), or Conservative newcomer Candice Hoeppner, running to succeed Brian Pallister in Portage-Lisgar.
Churchill Liberal MP Tina Keeper is trying to fend off New Democrat Nikki Ashton for the second straight election, but this time without the vote-splitting factor of Independent Bev Desjarlais, a former New Democratic MP.
John Sullivan is manager of online research and development at the Free Press.
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